Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds

The league phase of the 2025/26 Champions League, and the subsequent knockout playoffs, have concluded with the latest round of fixtures providing plenty of post-match talking points – no more than Bodo/Glimt stunning Inter Milan with a 5-2 win on aggregate.

With anticipation now building over the final 16 clubs battling it out to win the trophy, the Opta supercomputer has predicted who is most likely to win the tournament after 10,000 simulations.

Paris Saint-Germain are the holders, with Luis Enrique’s men stunning 5-0 win over Inter Milan back in June giving them the trophy for the first time, and they’ll be battling to do so again this time around. However, they aren’t predicted to win the trophy – and GIVEMESPORT tells you who the favourites are, as well as the outside chancers.

Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 16-11

There are some huge teams who haven’t even made the cut for the top 16 most likely teams to win the tournament by virtue of crashing out at early: Dutch giants Ajax are naturally a massive club, as are Bundesliga outfit Eintracht Frankfurt and Kevin De Bruyne-led Napoli, who are managed by Antonio Conte.

Kicking things off as the least likely team to win the big-eared trophy are Galatasary, who are closely followed by Norweigan minnows Bodo/Glimt. The have already beaten Atletico Madrid, Manchester City, and now Inter en route to the last 16, but remain a relatively unknown quantity due to their humble Arctic circle surroundings.

Serie A outfit Atalanta (0.76%) are 14th favourites, with their stocks on the rise in recent years after winning the 2024 Europa League final. Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have done well to make it this far after their summer fire sale, which came about courtesy of Xabi Alonso’s departure, as they sit 13th with a win potential of just 0.2% better.

Atletico Madrid have yet to win the Champions League and that is very likely to continue. They have a 1.39% chance of winning the accolade. Premier League outfit Tottenham Hotspur hadn’t won a major honour in 17 years before their Europa League win last season, but continental success last time out and a flurry of summer signings has given them a 1.67% chance of winning the lot.

Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 10-6

Sporting CP, despite losing Ruben Amorim and Viktor Gyokeres in recent years, are flying the Portugal flag high in Europe this term – and they managed to finish inside the top eight of the league phase after five wins from their eight matches. Going all the way could prove a challenge, but they’ve still been offered a 2.08% chance of doing so.

Real Madrid have just a 3.90% chance of winning the lot this campaign – which may initially come as a surprise by virtue of their success on the continental stage.

Xabi Alonso’s departure, with the manager being replaced by Alvaro Arbeola, has rocked the boat, and they’ve struggled to emulate their form of previous seasons.

Newcastle United (3.94%) are given a bigger chance than some massive European clubs, including Real Madrid, despite the Magpies finishing outside the automatic progression spots. They’re followed by last season’s winners, Paris Saint-Germain, though it must be said that the talent at the disposal of Luis Enrique means that anything is possible and the French club going back-to-back is very possible.

Last season’s semi-finalists, Barcelona, just miss out on a spot in the top five. They’ve been given a 6.16% chance of winning the trophy after missing out narrowly last season. As one of the best teams in world football, Lamine Yamal and company have every chance of breaking the trend and winning the lot, of course.

Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 5-1

Following their Europa Conference League success last term and their Club World Cup triumph in the summer, Chelsea are fifth and Liam Rosenior’s men have a 6.69% of winning the tournament.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool, who were knocked out by PSG last season in the round of 16, have struggled in the Premier League this season, but their strong showing in Europe so far means they have a 10.44% chance of reigning victorious.

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side are in third as they chase the trophy two years on from their maiden triumph in Istanbul. They are followed by Bayern Munich – a team who finished second in the league phase thanks to Harry Kane’s firepower up top and Lennart Karl’s teenage brilliance behind him.

That leaves Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side at the top of the tree, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them win the trophy in many of its simulations as the Gunners aim to end their half-decade wait without silverware. The Gunners became the 13th team in Champions League history to end the group stage/league phase with a flawless record and Opta believes they have a 29.45% of winning their first-ever title in Europe.

All data per Opta’s supecomputer – correct as of 26/02/2026