Supercomputer Ranks Every 2026 World Cup Team’s Chances – Argentina Above England

It’s also the first time Uzbekistan have ever played at the showpiece tournament – and, spearheaded by Manchester City youngster Abdukodir Khusanov, the first Uzbek to play for the Citizens, they’ve been given a ‘slightly’ better chance of being successful (0.01%), the same as Jordan, Tunisia and Iraq.

The third-smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup, Cape Verde, also have a miniscule chance of going all the way, despite their impressive 0-0 draw against Spain.

Also with a near-impossible chance of achieving the utterly unthinkable are DR Congo, Panama, Saudi Arabia and others. For these sorts of nations, their version of dreaming big may not be the same as the likes of England and France – but, instead, pulling off a shock upset or making it out of the group stage will count as success.

DR Congo’s 1-1 draw against Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal was among the most surprising results of the opening round of matches, while Iran have a 0.18% chance of causing a monumental upset on US soil, the same as Scotland, who may need a result against Brazil in their final group stage match to progress.

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Can Ivory Coast, three-time champions of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), achieve similar success on a much wider scale? On the face of it, going all the way is unlikely, but Opta’s supercomputer has still given Manchester United’s Amad and his compatriots a 0.35% chance after beating Ecuador.

Mohamed Salah, widely regarded as one of the best African players of all time thanks to his final third exploits, is a player who dreams of lifting the biggest trophies on the planet – but the World Cup is, perhaps, a step too far for his Egypt side. That said, a 1-1 draw against Belgium in their opening match was respectable.

Albeit in a friendly, Pape Thiaw’s Senegal are one of only two nations to beat England since Thomas Tuchel’s appointment last year – and they have a squad packed to the brim with talent: Iliman Ndiaye, Sadio Mane, Malick Diouf spring to mind. The Lions of Teranga impressed against France but a 3-1 defeat means their odds of going all the way this summer have been reduced to 0.42%.

Even the most ardent supporters of Jesse Marsch-led Canada – the least likely host nation to win the tournament – would struggle to put together a compelling case to suggest anything special could happen. They’ve been given a chance of 0.50% of reigning triumphant on home soil after smashing Qatar 6-0.

South Korea beat Czech Republic in their opening match but then lost to Mexico, reducing their chances of winning the tournament to 0.51%, while more was expected of Ecuador against Ivory Coast.

Australia opened their campaign up with an impressive 2-0 victory over Turkey but their chances of lifting the trophy on July 19 took a hit when they were beaten by the USA in their second group game.

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Mexico’s chances of winning the World Cup increased to 1.17% after beating South Africa in the opening match of the tournament, followed by another win over South Korea. They could be a force to be reckoned with in the knockout stages.

They have been given a greater chance than Croatia (0.81%), Austria (0.92%), Sweden (0.98%), Japan (1.09%) and Uruguay (1.15%).

AFCON champions Morocco (1.86%) are in 13th place following a 1-1 draw against Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil and a 1-0 victory over Scotland.

Belgium’s Golden Generation has come and gone, and that was shown when they drew 1-1 in their opener against Egypt. They have been given a 1.88% chance of winning the competition, while Colombia, led by Luis Diaz, handed a 2.73% chance of glory.

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Kicking off the top ten are the Netherlands, who registered a 2-2 draw against Japan. Joint hosts United States (3.28%), managed by Mauricio Pochettino, looked very impressive as they hammered Paraguay 4-1 in the opening round of matches. Only eight nations have a better chance than them.

Norway (3.28% chance) also scored four goals in their first match (against Iraq), with world-class striker Erling Haaland netting a brace.

It’s been 24 years since five-time champions Brazil last lifted the World Cup. Their 3-0 victory over Haiti, which followed a 1-1 draw against Morocco, means their title chances are currently 5.42%.

Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany (6.36%) are in fifth spot following their emphatic 7-1 demolition of Curacao, while Portugal (5.99%), who failed to convince against DR Congo drop to sixth. Ronaldo, in particular, struggled – but write him and his country off at your peril.

England (11.64%) are looking to end 60 years of hurt and got their campaign off to a flying start with a 4-2 win over Croatia, while Argentina (12.44%) are up to second place after the peerless Lionel Messi scored a hat-trick in a 3-0 win against Algeria.

There’s also been a change at the top, with Spain (12.09%) dropping to third spot after a shock 0-0 draw against Cape Verde. France are currently the tournament favourites, with their chances having increased to 15.98% thanks to a Kylian Mbappe-inspired 3-1 win over Senegal.

Correct as of 20/06/2026.